New Democratic Party takes shape

By Abuzer Zaidi, News Editor

Bernie Sanders’s 2016 decision to run for the Democratic nomination for the President of the United States has had a lasting impact on the political landscape that has become more evident since the 2018 midterm elections.

In those elections, a new political reality became clear to the Democratic party: it was no longer united behind one ideology as a whole.

Singularly, the Sanders bid for the candidacy could be seen as the catalyst for the new movement embodied by the new wave of freshmen Democrats led by personalities like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, and Illhan Omar.

In light of the new Democratic Party, the old guard seems to have broken from the Progressives, with Nancy Pelosi calling the Green New Deal — the keystone policy for the Progressives — a “Green Dream.” All across the mainstream left-leaning news networks, the Green New Deal has been faced with ridicule or been dismissed as impractical.

The new party split was most evident when Omar was accused of making anti-semitic remarks while criticizing the The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s influence in shifting policy towards a pro-Israel direction, via the use of excessive campaign donations.

After this, the backlash was practically bipartisan, with the likes of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and President Donald Trump condemning her for anti-semitism (despite being criticized for insensitive comments of their own in the past).

In this the Democratic Party split, with progressives making popular #IStandWithIlhan, with Representatives Ayana Pressely, Ocasio-Cortez, and Sanders tweeting the briefly popular hashtag. Senators Warren and Harris also defended her statements.

It is clear that within the Democratic Party there are now two significant coalitions of politicians taking precedent. The older group — the ones often described as ‘moderates’ or ‘Neoliberals’ — and the newer group — those often described as ‘Democratic Socialists’ or ‘Progressives.’

Implications for the 2020 Election Cycle

Arguably, the two coalitions would allow for a schism within the Democratic Party, which may lead to a party split and therefore allow for Trump to be elected into his second term.

Currently, there are 15 officially announced candidates with another two who have announced exploratory committees.

The frontrunner amongst the official candidates, according to numerous polls, is Senator Sanders. Joe Biden, the former Vice President, is clearly another favorite in the polls.

Depending on the source, Biden is anywhere from 2% to 20% ahead of Sanders. This seems to indicate that the final two candidates in the running for the Democratic Primary will probably be Biden — a centrist candidate — and Sanders — the Progressive candidate.

US History and US Government Teacher Brad Seltzer disagrees with the pundits who project a party schism. He cites the fact that the other popular candidates — Elizabeth Warren, Beto O’Rourke, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Pete Buttigieg — are running on Bernie’s platform, indicating a shift in the party center towards the Progressives.
Seltzer, in regards to party unity said that “it is real test of Nancy Pelosi,” indicating that any level of split or unity in the party falls upon the shoulders of the party leadership.

Currently the party leadership is operated by the neoliberal faction. Despite the current split, Seltzer said that there was a significant amount of time in which the party leadership can mend the break. He said specifically that he has faith in Pelosi and her ability to heal the gap, and potentially form a unified front.

Seltzer pointed out the solution to a potential party break in the primaries, and it lies in the party break that occurred in 2016.

In 2016, the two primary candidates for the Democratic ticket were Hillary Clinton and Sanders. Largely, Bernie supporters believe that the Democratic National Committee — the party’s official governing body — shortchanged the Progressive Senator. This was done by the commitment of the party superdelegates. Delegates are effectively representatives of a district (apportioned by population), and they commit to the will of the voters during the primary voting season.

In contrast, superdelegates are party officials that have the same power as the delegates, but aren’t tied to an electorate. Rather, they represent party interests. Superdelegates account for around 15% of the total delegates. Typically, the decisions made by the superdelegates inform the funding, news air time, and eventually the winner of the primary.

Sanders supporters argued that the DNC superdelegates undercut the Bernie campaign by committing their votes before there was a clear favorite between him and Hillary Clinton.

Seltzer said that the solution lies with the “party big-wigs” and whether or not they will “give [all the candidates] equal air until they naturally filter out” at which point, the leadership of the DNC would decide.

Seltzer posited that, if the DNC approaches this policy in regards to committing superdelegates, then the schism — as seen in 2016 — will not occur. Seltzer’s vision is quite likely, given that the DNC made it an official policy that the superdelegates cannot have the deciding vote in the first round of votes in the Democratic National Convention.

Looking to the future, Seltzer indicated that he would give the highest odds to the candidates with the biggest financial backing in terms of large donors. While many of the leading candidates have pledged not to accept large corporate contributions, individual contributions are capped at $5,000 in total.

According to Seltzer, the massive amounts of funding received by Sanders and O’Rourke are not sustainable based solely on individual contributions. That leaves the Labor Unions as the primary determining factor in the upcoming Democratic Race for the candidacy.