A devout red county in PA recently held a special election for a Senate seat. In a surprising turn of events, after years of voting red, the Democrat candidate James Malone won over Josh Parsons, the Lancaster County Commissioner.
Lancaster had been known as a reliable county for Republicans. In the recent presidential election, President Donald Trump carried the county with nearly 57 percent of the vote, and it has not elected a Democrat candidate since the 1980s, according to Spotlight PA.
In a statement from Malone about questions regarding the success of his victory, he cited President Donald Trump’s chaotic presidency.
“If President Trump were trying to accomplish his agenda in a very methodical, and cohesive, and by-the-book way, we wouldn’t have as much vitriol as we do right now” said Malone, who believes that the fear and panic citizens are feeling with some of the President’s policies directly led to his victory.
However, Pennsylvania’s Republican party chairman, Greg Rothman has different ideas. He says that the President’s policies had little-to-no effect on this special election and rather quoted that the Democrats were better at getting their supporters to vote early by mail while Republicans relied on more traditional ballot voting.
Either way, Rothman urged, “We need to take this as a wake-up call to the Republican Party.”
This upset could radiate positive signals for Democrats. Data journalist G. Elliott Morris — formerly in charge of ABC’s 538 polling website — said that in President Trump’s last term, the midterm elections of 2018 put Democrats in power. With the current trends, this would continue into 2026. Additionally, Democrats are known to be more politically involved and turn out in special and midterm elections when compared to Republicans, furthering their positive outcomes.
However, voter registration for Democrats is decreasing in numbers. Voters are disenchanted by both major parties leading to both parties pushing to attract these centrist and apathetic voters. Specifically, Jalen Nix, executive director of the Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, explains that Democrats are looking to “expand their base to low-propensity voters.”
Overall, the major upset in Lancaster points towards positive outcomes for Democrats in 2026, but in the end it will come down to who can mobilize voters more effectively and attract apathetic voters.
