An early look at 2024 election
Polls: Biden-Trump rematch seen as most likely scenario
May 11, 2023
Midterm elections have passed and after both parties gleaned much from this election, the minds of strategists and political fanatics alike are going to one place: 2024.
There are two questions to be asked going into 2024: will President Biden run for a second term, and, if he does, will any of his fellow Democrats with presidential ambitions campaign against him? Similarly, how many Republicans will dare run against former President Trump in the 2024 primaries?
Reporters have incessantly asked President Biden if he will run again in 2024 with his answer remaining resolute each time in his assurance that he will be campaigning for a second term.
Biden’s age has caused both parties to question whether or not he is going to seek re-election, with him turning 80 this November and 82 not long after the 2024 election. He is already the oldest person to hold office, the previous title holder being Ronald Reagan, who was 77 when leaving office.
Another factor in the question of Biden’s re-election is his approval rating, currently sitting at 43.9 percent. While this is higher than recent months, he still remains generally disliked by a majority of the American populace.
If Biden runs for re-election it’s likely that he won’t face opposition in the primaries. However, if he decides not to run, the Democratic voters could have many candidates to choose from.
Vice President Kamala Harris may seem like the obvious candidate if Biden does not seek re-election, but she might not make it far in the primaries. Harris has a favorability rating of 36 percent.
California Governor Gavin Newsom sparked rumors of a potential 2024 campaign over the summer but has since said he is “all in” on a Biden re-election campaign.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is also a potential presidential candidate. Buttigieg ran a strong campaign while running in 2020 despite little name recognition at the time, winning the New Hampshire and Iowa caucuses which are considered key to winning the presidential nomination. He has yet to express his interest in a 2024 bid, but the former South Bend, Ind., mayor could be considered a 2024 front-runner should Biden opt not to run.
Former Governor of South Carolina and former ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, announced her campaign for 2024. The former UN ambassador teased a 2024 run over the summer while promoting her new book. The former governor would likely bring female voters to the GOP, a demographic that is typically dominated by the Democrats, giving a beneficial incentive for Haley’s campaign announcement.
Other names to watch if the 2024 campaign didn’t include Biden are Rep. Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. However, if Biden does not run, Harris, Newsom and Buttigieg are among the most likely candidates to receive the Democratic nomination.
The Republican primary race is going to be interesting to observe, with some Republicans wanting to remain loyal to Trump while others are hoping to bring a new, younger face to the GOP.
Trump announced Nov. 15 he will be running for a second term in office. Trump’s third presidential run is once again a controversial one since many Republicans blame the former president for their poor performance in the midterms, losing him some support within his party.
The former president was indicted in New York on April 4 on allegations that he falsified internal business records at his private company. He faces additional legal investigations over classified documents found at his Florida estate and whether he and allies potentially interfered in the 2020 election in Georgia.
Trump has also made enemies within his party, most notably, former Vice President Mike Pence. The former president and his VP have clashed over Trump’s denial of the 2020 election results as well as events of January 6th, when Pence was in the Capitol building.
Nevertheless, Trump is seen as the candidate most likely to receive the Republican nomination currently, holding double-digit edges over DeSantis in recent national polls.
Still, DeSantis is the former president’s most formidable GOP opponent going into the next election. The sunshine state’s governor has been widely praised by fellow Republicans for his leadership during the pandemic and most recently how he led the state during Hurricane Ian in late September.
DeSantis has faced criticism from Democrats for some of the same things that he has been praised for by Republicans, such as his leadership during the pandemic where his restrictions for the state were much looser compared to the rest of the country. DeSantis also has faced criticism for a Florida bill that was passed last March, which was deemed the “Don’t Say Gay” bill, prohibiting the discussion of sexual orientation in the classroom. He is believed to be the leader of the rising generation of Republicans and many want him to run so he can bring youth to the party.
Pence is another likely 2024 candidate. Pence strongly disapproves of his former boss’s re-election bid and sources close to him believe that he will run.
Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson announced his bid for the nomination in April.
Other potential GOP candidates include Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, and Virginia Governor Glenn Younkin.
Though it is possible that one of the aforementioned Republicans could end up as the nominee, former President Trump, DeSantis, Pence, and Haley are the most likely to make it to the ballot in November of 2024.